Long lasting changes because of the Coronavirus

[rhumbagirl]

Yea, I do. Quite literally, it will only get worse. As much as it sucks to look at it this way, life will eventually find balance. When we have too many people and too many food animals to inefficiently feed those too many people there's directly no other way this could go. The larger and denser the populations of both, the higher the chance of pathogen transmission and mutation.

The last serious global pandemic was in 1917-1919. It killed something like 50 million, and it acted more like a flu without as much a-symptom and long incubation. At the time there was no factory farming at all, no airplanes to spread things faster and not even 2 billion total people on the planet. Go ahead and google the population now, then think about how many animals we need to feed all these people, especially as we all come to the (obviously correct) assumption that we all have the right to eat animals from factories for every meal.

Scary stuff.

I actually think its worse. I think climate change is going to win out in the next 100 years. The Earth's climate is not like a microwave oven that can be turned on and off with the switch of a button. We've already seen disturbance in the atmospheric currents near the polar region. That is increasing warming and ice melt. We had severe temperature drops in the last year because of polar air that was disturbed and shoved in places it usually isn't. And it gives people the ammunition they need to deny climate change exists, just because it's cool outside.

I think the transition to the warmer world we're headed for is going to be a drastic change that will catch us off guard. I've stopped driving my car 4 years ago because it broke down and I couldn't get it fixed right away. But my motivation for riding a bicycle to work and back, to pickup groceries, to run errands, transitioned from necessity to health reasons. I'd like to think that climate change is a reason in there some where, but it's very very hard to connect the dots between choosing to ride a bicycle everywhere and seeing an impact on the Earth's climate, especially when you don't see ANYONE else riding! Anyway, I'm now in a position to preach the climate change impact. At least I feel I'm paying the price, even though what I get most out of it is the health aspect - which is probably why I'm still here a month after experiencing COVID-19 symptoms.

 

[MntnMan62]

I agree they have the highest rate of testing per pop size some 250,000 tests. We'd need millions to reach that level. That is the number of kits that WHO has seems like I read-the 250k number??. So we are behind the ball big time here but we can still enact actions to prevent assuming the worse-then test to catch up and find out. We get lots of promises-man have I heard that a bunch in life-I'm skeptical to say the least. Words come cheap-actions are the judge. From memory of number per million I calculate we need to test 1.92 million Americans to reach S Korea level. We ain't even close. It's like over a week for testing with health pros and patients in my wife's experience here., so creating problems for her with staffing.

Actually we would only need about 1.5 million to be at the same ratio as South Korea. And I find it inexcusable that so many months out from the start of the spread of the virus and we are nowhere near where we need to be. Incompetence is the reason.

 

[MrInsanePolack]

Again, who possibly could have known that filling the planet with food animals crammed together eating most of the worlds grains/food themselves, taking most of the available (newly de-forested) land, and filling the air with greenhouse gasses could go wrong?

Funny how we find that our good ideas of yesterday turn out to be ? today. Look at plastic. Oops.

Food animals, love it! Never thought about it but yeah. So in the animal world there are wild, domesticated, and food. Hmm...

It's my right as a person on the planet to eat factory farmed animals for every meal and snack of every day of every year whilst literally ignoring the impact on our environment and selves while raising 6 children to live as I do.

Wow 6 kids. Sorry bout that ?.

Perhaps we should all start hunting, fishing, and farming again.

So now my point taken as US Congress in stalemate over an economic action. Yelling next they'll be fists LOL. Now I really want it but also afraid of disparities or political or ideological actions having nothing to do with problem so we get strapped with a bunch of doodoo. So right now our death rate isn't much different than S Korea that the most success of mitigating.

I have an idea. Don't give us checks. We are dumb and will blow them. Instead, shut the country DOWN. Grocery stores, gas stations, and supply lines for said two businesses. That's it for the public. Keep medical facilities running, and minimal government to keep order and normalcy. Everyone stays home except for necessities or emergencies, medical or not. Banks remain open only to maintain the necessary transactions.

Utilities stay on and are funded by the govt. All rent, mortgages, and foreclosures are hereby suspended indefinitely. Transactions made by the public will be grocery and fuel only. Food stamps will be immediately available to all who need it, regardless of normal income, as will financial help if necessary. No one will be left behind.

If the govt really wants to help and do what's right, they will lock us down and fund our home imprisonment. Once this crap is over we can unpause the game and play some more.

 

[AzHeat]

If I could buy a car without having to sit down with a salesman to negotiate... I would be one very happy guy.

I literally hate the experience more than dental work. It's always in the back of my mind... they are going to dump every kind of trick to f*** you by making as much money off you as possible. (There's a few other businesses I feel do the same thing, but that's for another time).

I like the idea of Carvana. We don't have one around here.

A sales person's job is to sell and make as much as possible. One doesn't have to say yes. It's like that with literally everything. They use fear tactics, so just be into all of it. SP - Wheel protection just in case you hit a curve and break one...could be thousands! You - I don't dig those wheels anyway. Hope they break, so I can get new ones. SP - this part protection protects agains bird crap, so you never have to worry about a fly by. You - I love birds and fry them up for lunch every day. SP - This warranty will protect you against being left on the side of the road. You - you mean this car is a piece of s***? Thanks for the warning, I wanted a (insert brand here) anyway!

To me it's a sport. I'll go buy cars with friends all day long. It's even more fun when someone else is buying, because I can be "that" guy. You know, the one the salesman wishes would vaporize instantly!

No reason to stress, it's all a game like anything else. Know your price, the value of your trade, the value of the car and their wholesale cost and negotiate accordingly. You still have to do this online, unless it's a one price deal, in which a thorough screwing is already built in.

Carvana's reviews are 50/50 at best, if you're not reading them on their site. Plenty of opportunities to get screwed in an online transaction and people have. Not seeing what you're buy-in involving a car is a recipe for disaster.

Totally off topic, but this thread has been all over the place already. LOL!

 

[rhumbagirl]

Grippa, no mate.

There's a reason why ICU's around the world use positive pressure ventilation.

As a front line nurse in Intensive Care, negative pressure ventilation is poorly tolerated and the risk of upper airway obstruction is too great. The effects of negative ventilation on the muscles alters patency of the airway drastically......plus it plays havoc with the left ventricle of the heart.

The technology we have in ICU's currently is pretty damn good.

The best way to help patients in distress currently is to actually apply the technology we have with experienced staff. That works a good percentage of the time.

That's another long lasting effect of this virus.........research for future events.

FYI. Daniel Dae Kim, the 51 yo actor from "Hawaii Five-O", has just recovered from COVID-19 with the help of these medications:
--antiviral Tamiflu
--antibiotic azithromycin (a.k.a. "z-pack")
--glycopyrrolate inhaler to ease breathing and inflammation
--hydroxychloroquine (the common antimalarial drug that has been used with great success in Korea against COVID-19)

Somehow I'm still here without any of that. LOL

 

[GetAgrippa]

I actually think its worse. I think climate change is going to win out in the next 100 years. The Earth's climate is not like a microwave oven that can be turned on and off with the switch of a button. We've already seen disturbance in the atmospheric currents near the polar region. That is increasing warming and ice melt. We had severe temperature drops in the last year because of polar air that was disturbed and shoved in places it usually isn't. And it gives people the ammunition they need to deny climate change exists, just because it's cool outside.

I think the transition to the warmer world we're headed for is going to be a drastic change that will catch us off guard. I've stopped driving my car 4 years ago because it broke down and I couldn't get it fixed right away. But my motivation for riding a bicycle to work and back, to pickup groceries, to run errands, transitioned from necessity to health reasons. I'd like to think that climate change is a reason in there some where, but it's very very hard to connect the dots between choosing to ride a bicycle everywhere and seeing an impact on the Earth's climate, especially when you don't see ANYONE else riding! Anyway, I'm now in a position to preach the climate change impact. At least I feel I'm paying the price, even though what I get most out of it is the health aspect - which is probably why I'm still here a month after experiencing COVID-19 symptoms.

I agree there are probably more climate scientist who believe it's to late to intervene-nor, though we are cause ,no evidence we can reverse it. No one has had much success on weather on short time scales so climate on long even more issues. I guess you've read about how in Arctic and Antartica are ancient frozen bacteria and viruses-that inevitably will be set free with melts. The big blow will be a big deep sea benthic extinction event if like PETM because all oceans screwed-which impacts climate more. I want to use biotechnology to help life-use CRISPR-cas to genetically modify life to mitigate climate change since not enough time for many species to evolve fast enough-though lots life can. I"d like to try in with coral reefs because you modify all the symbionts involved. What we can expect with a larger area with equatorial climate there will be more diseases associated with those areas-all battle still going on like Malaria, etc.
You still got your sense of humor rhumba from your last post. You must be feeling better.

 

[rhumbagirl]

This week they expect to see a steep ramp up of cases here in the US. And from what I see, lots of people are ignoring the protocols put in place. I hope I’m wrong but 3 months into this and there still is no large scale testing taking place here. Some testing facilities have opened up but very few and you need a prescription from your doctor. It is not enough that you may have come in contact with someone with the virus. You have to be showing symptoms. That restriction renders the testing almost useless because not everyone shows symptoms but can carry and transmit the virus. Amazing to me how inept the response has been here.

I've been able to create logarithmic plots of the data I collected since the pandemic started two months ago. The logarithmic scale allows you to project a path out to targets 10-fold greater.

Using the recent trend line from data from Mar 2 to Mar 22, I was able to project a target of 10 million American cases by April 10. Even though every American is now self-isolating, which will have a slowing or flattening effect on the case growth, that effect is 14 days delayed (ie the incubation period).

After April 10, the trend line should be less vertical and more flatter. The real question is the death rate, which will depend on PPE, test kits, ventilators, and hospital beds.

 

[MntnMan62]

I've been able to create logarithmic plots of the data I collected since the pandemic started two months ago. The logarithmic scale allows you to project a path out to targets 10-fold greater.

Using the recent trend line from data from Mar 2 to Mar 22, I was able to project a target of 10 million American cases by April 10. Even though every American is now self-isolating, which will have a slowing or flattening effect on the case growth, that effect is 14 days delayed (ie the incubation period).

After April 10, the trend line should be less vertical and more flatter. The real question is the death rate, which will depend on PPE, test kits, ventilators, and hospital beds.

That's some scary stuff. Even at 1% that would mean 100,000 deaths. Let's hope the numbers aren't anywhere near those projected by your logarithmic plots.

I should add that my suburban town of about 48,000 has seen a total of 23 positive cases. No deaths so far but two are hospitalized, two have recovered and the rest are presumably self isolating at home.

 

[rhumbagirl]

I agree there are probably more climate scientist who believe it's to late to intervene-nor, though we are cause ,no evidence we can reverse it. No one has had much success on weather on short time scales so climate on long even more issues. I guess you've read about how in Arctic and Antartica are ancient frozen bacteria and viruses-that inevitably will be set free with melts. The big blow will be a big deep sea benthic extinction event if like PETM because all oceans screwed-which impacts climate more. I want to use biotechnology to help life-use CRISPR-cas to genetically modify life to mitigate climate change since not enough time for many species to evolve fast enough-though lots life can. I"d like to try in with coral reefs because you modify all the symbionts involved. What we can expect with a larger area with equatorial climate there will be more diseases associated with those areas-all battle still going on like Malaria, etc.
You still got your sense of humor rhumba from your last post. You must be feeling better.

I am feeling better, but I don't want to expect anything until after the one-week fork in the road, which occurs on Thursday.

This morning I woke up with a slight sore throat, but once I got up and got moving, gargled my daily salt-water, drank my warm green tea, the sore throat is gone.

The lungs are feeling pretty good. Don't want to say too much there either, since it always seems the dry cough is just under the surface all the time.

One thing no one's talking about is the scarring effect on the lungs of those that survive coronavirus. If one later becomes infected with a new strain are they now considered a case with pre-existing conditions?

 

[JohnnyG]

Not sure where you are from, but in my neck of the wood, Florida, Gulf Coast, very heavy pollen season. Spring is upon us and breathing throught eh mouth while sleeping will cause a sore or dry throat because of the pollen.

 

[rhumbagirl]

That's some scary stuff. Even at 1% that would mean 100,000 deaths. Let's hope the numbers aren't anywhere near those projected by your logarithmic plots.

I should add that my suburban town of about 48,000 has seen a total of 23 positive cases. No deaths so far but two are hospitalized, two have recovered and the rest are presumably self isolating at home.

Another takeaway from the plot is the trend line for death cases vs recovered cases. The current data suggests the rate of recovery cases is higher (steeper) than the rate of death cases, which suggests a healthcare system that is functioning. When it becomes dysfunctioning and over-saturated (not enough beds or not enough workers because of PPE, or not enough ventilators) then expect the rate of death cases to be higher (steeper) than the rate of recovery cases.

 

[Swissward Flamtacles]

Using the recent trend line from data from Mar 2 to Mar 22, I was able to project a target of 10 million American cases by April 10. Even though every American is now self-isolating, which will have a slowing or flattening effect on the case growth, that effect is 14 days delayed (ie the incubation period).

After April 10, the trend line should be less vertical and more flatter. The real question is the death rate, which will depend on PPE, test kits, ventilators, and hospital beds.

The fatality rate is unfortunately completely unknown even with enough available ICUs - you see studies ranging between 0.5 and 20% if you factor in the temporal delay between registered infection and death. Others claim it's much lower because people with symptoms have a higher probability to apply for testing. It's really hard to estimate and we can just stay at home and hope for the best. The best case scenarios if the virus spreads are still rather bleak.

 

[rhumbagirl]

Not sure where you are from, but in my neck of the wood, Florida, Gulf Coast, very heavy pollen season. Spring is upon us and breathing throught eh mouth while sleeping will cause a sore or dry throat because of the pollen.

I'm in Portland Oregon, so no I don't think that's it. I am a mouth breather here though. Sinus issues since I was young. I did stay up late last night. Trying to figure out Dr Deborah Birx, who she is, what her background is. I think I got to bed at 6am. Yep that's it! LOL

 

[GetAgrippa]

I am feeling better, but I don't want to expect anything until after the one-week fork in the road, which occurs on Thursday.

This morning I woke up with a slight sore throat, but once I got up and got moving, gargled my daily salt-water, drank my warm green tea, the sore throat is gone.

The lungs are feeling pretty good. Don't want to say too much there either, since it always seems the dry cough is just under the surface all the time.

One thing no one's talking about is the scarring effect on the lungs of those that survive coronavirus. If one later becomes infected with a new strain are they now considered a case with pre-existing conditions?

So glad your feeling better. Does your analysis make you feel better or worse in coping with it-it scares me. And Ah ha engineers are so analytical LOL. Try my "medicine" hybrid analysis so we can play Gregor Mendel for the day. I'm holding off on those data your plotting till it's all over. It could be worse the idiot I supported thought Aleppo was a pepper-and proves my concern about hybridization in medicine and obviously turned Johnson into a sausage LOL. That's why I don't vote often-no buyers remorse lol.

 

[Rock Salad]

I just thought of one we really need to try to avoid:
The further isolation of the elderly.

Mike Muir said it well.
Wait a minute! "We decided," my best interests?
How do you know what my best interest is?

 

[rhumbagirl]

So glad your feeling better. Does your analysis make you feel better or worse in coping with it-it scares me. And Ah ha engineers are so analytical LOL. Try my "medicine" hybrid analysis so we can play Gregor Mendel for the day. I'm holding off on those data your plotting till it's all over. It could be worse the idiot I supported thought Aleppo was a pepper-and proves my concern about hybridization in medicine and obviously turned Johnson into a sausage LOL. That's why I don't vote often-no buyers remorse lol.

The thing about data is you need to get it while it's there. The data above is just me typing it into Notes app over a month period and then deciding I could plot the data in the Numbers app and so wouldn't depend on the plots from the other websites like:

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

The data I obtained was primarily from Johns Hopkins:

COVID-19 Map - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)

coronavirus.jhu.edu

But the early data, from the first case on Jan 20 to the 57th case on Mar 2, was from typing in "coronavirus" into google news and going through the list. But it was Mar 2 where the number of cases reported by John Hopkins did a step change to 105 cases.

And then there was the blank period between Feb 13 and Feb 26 where no new US cases were reported in the news. That's why it's good to grab data when it's available. February was the month between politics and reality, and when politicians were unloading risky stock.

 

[Swissward Flamtacles]

I just thought of one we really need to try to avoid:
The further isolation of the elderly.

So you think we should avoid isolation of the elderly in the future? I doubt that this will happen due to COVID-19. Some say that the situation in Italy is so terrible (more than 5000 deaths and 50000 infected) because different generations live in the same household and therefore more old people received it from their children and grandchildren. I'd like to understand more about the situation but the more I read, the more I feel like we'll understand everything better in a few weeks and that for now there are way too many uncertain numbers that multiply towards completely different scenarios.

 

[rhumbagirl]

Note that if you look at the trend line for recovery cases starting on Mar 18, you get a steeper trend of deaths vs recovery. In fact the recovery statistics for US cases has gone unreported for a second day in a row. That may suggest that the data isn't favorable, but we'll have to wait and see if it's a blip or they have another reason to not report. One of the big disagreements between state governments and the federal government is whether hospitals and medical staff are adequately prepared. Hard to know what's going on without the recovery data.

 

[GetAgrippa]

Well it's official. Seems pretty truthful in this interview with the premier science journal of world. Sadly I just let my membership lapse after 40 years membership. I don't figure I'll be in the loop ever again. You can't argue with "Science" LOL. I really feel sorry for Fauci-I bet he ends up a fall guy and ruin a great career. I hope everyone votes all Congress out of office after today's nonsense.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...-tries-make-white-house-listen-facts-pandemic

 

[jaykaydrums]

because of human stupidity and sheer ignorance, the UK's jsut been put into full lockdown pretty much! >.<